El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Rainfall Variability in Central and Southern Sudan
摘要:
In this study, the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the rainfall variability in the central (Savannah) and southern (Equatorial) regions of Sudan are examined. The annual rainfall data from 12 rainfall stations for 49 years are used in this examination. The results of the study show that the areal annual regionally averaged rainfall values in the two regions have decreased markedly since the early 1960s, with co-existence between the driest years and the warm ENSO events. The correlation between the annual regional rainfall values and the ENSO events is found to be relatively higher for the Savannah region than for the Equatorial region. Two regional ENSO-rainfall prediction models are developed, one for each region. These models use the ENSO sea surface temperature. The results of the models test show that both models can significantly improve the predictability of the annual rainfall values, which is essential for the planning and the management of water resources in Sudan.
Predictors and Incidence of Urinary Incontinence in Elderly Canadians With and Without Dementia — A Five-Year Follow Up: The Canadian Study of Health and Aging
摘要:
摘要本研究以加拿大全国健康与老龄化研究为基础,旨在确定社会人口和医疗因素、认知和功能状况对尿失禁发生的重要预测作用,并按性别和年龄组估计五年的发病率。对加拿大健康与老龄化研究(Canadian Study of Health and Aging)中于 1992 年接受临床检查并在当时排尿的参与者进行了跟踪调查,并于 1997 年再次确定了他们的尿失禁状况。分别为男性(306 人)和女性(520 人)幸存者建立了以每日尿失禁和每日或少于每日尿失禁为结果的多变量逻辑回归模型。预测变量分为以下几组:社会人口因素、认知状况、功能状况、糖尿病和中风。此外,还估算了按性别和年龄组分列的每日尿失禁和小于每日尿失禁的五年累计发生率。结果表明,女性尿失禁的发生率高于男性,而且随着年龄的增长,男女尿失禁的发生率均有所上升。尤其是在男性中,住在养老院的人比住在社区的人更容易出现尿失禁。尿失禁随痴呆症的严重程度而急剧增加,但随身体活动不便而增加。糖尿病与男性尿失禁的发生有关,但与女性无关。结论是,尿失禁在老年人中很常见,对老年人进行常规医疗和护理评估时应询问是否存在尿失禁。出现尿失禁的老年人通常患有痴呆症且身体机能受损。评估和处理的程度应根据每位患者的具体情况认真制定。