Summary. We consider a capture–recapture model in which capture probabilities vary with time and with behavioral response. Two inference procedures are developed under the assumption that recapture probabilities bear a constant relationship to initial capture probabilities. These two procedures are the maximum likelihood method (both unconditional and conditional types are discussed) and an approach based on optimal estimating functions. The population size estimators derived from the two procedures are shown to be asymptotically equivalent when population size is large enough. The performance and relative merits of various population size estimators for finite cases are discussed. The bootstrap method is suggested for constructing a variance estimator and confidence interval. An example of the deer mouse analyzed in Otis et al. (1978, Wildlife Monographs62, 93) is given for illustration.
摘要 我们考虑了一个捕获-再捕获模型,在这个模型中,捕获概率随时间和行为反应而变化。在重新捕获概率与初始捕获概率关系不变的假设下,我们开发了两种推断程序。这两种程序分别是最大似然法(讨论了无条件和有条件两种类型)和基于最优估计函数的方法。研究表明,当种群数量足够大时,这两种方法得出的种群数量估计值在渐近上是等效的。讨论了有限情况下各种种群规模估计器的性能和相对优点。建议使用引导法构建方差估计器和置信区间。以 Otis 等人(1978 年,《野生动物专著》62,93)中分析的鹿鼠为例进行说明。