This paper reports on interim results of an ISAFA research project aimed at constructing a statistical model to evaluate the level of visitor attendance at any given forest site, this parameter being considered the best indicator of the recreational value of the forest.The paper describes the main steps for defining and modelling the factors and variables involved in this phenomenon: demand for recreation in woods at a national level, anthropic pressure on forest resources at a territorial level, and the aesthetic-functional quality of forest sites. These phases produced sub-models, described and discussed here, that can be useful even when used alone for management purposes.The method adopted for collecting the experimental data on actual attendance rates at 41 forest sites in the Italian Alps is also described, as well as the attempts so far performed to carry out the final model. The multiple regression approach failed, so an alternative elaboration method, based on a better definition of some other variables such as accessibility, an increased quantity of experimental data and neural networks, which at present is still in progress, is also briefly discussed.
本文报告了 I
SAFA 研究项目的中期结果,该项目旨在构建一个统计模型来评估任何特定森林地点的游客出勤
水平,该参数被认为是森林休闲价值的最佳指标。本文描述了主要内容定义和模拟这一现象所涉及的因素和变量的步骤:国家层面对森林休闲的需求、领土层面对森林资源的人为压力以及森林地点的审美功能质量。这些阶段产生了此处描述和讨论的子模型,即使单独用于管理目的,这些子模型也很有用。还描述了收集意大利阿尔卑斯山 41 个森林点实际出勤率实验数据所采用的方法作为迄今为止为执行最终模型所做的尝试。多元回归方法失败了,因此还简要讨论了另一种阐述方法,该方法基于对其他一些变量的更好定义,例如可访问性、增加的实验数据和神经网络数量,目前仍在进行中。